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Horse Racing Tips - Saturday 19th & Sunday 20th August

  The Sumbe Prix Morny - Race Overview & Tips


River Tiber

The Subme Prix Morny 🇫🇷

Our main race this weekend comes on Sunday over in France at Deauville is the 3.25pm Group 1 Prix Morny over 6f. The market is topped by one of Aidan O’Briens star 2YO’s River Tiber. 

The 9 stand their ground it what looks to be the most exciting 2YO race of the season. 

RIVER TIBER is favoured by outstanding Coventry form, but a recent setback raises concerns. 

RAMATUELLE, the French contender, gains a 4lb allowance being a filly but needs to improve on her impressive G3 victory. She will act on any ground. 

VANDEEK impressed on soft ground at Goodwood & his knee action suggesting more improvement on better ground, but the quick turnaround is a concern. 

ELITE STATUS burst onto the scene & has a C&D victory to his name. Discounting a loss to a 150/1 shot at Royal Ascot, he's a contender. 

JASOUR seems to excel on firmer ground, not yet encountering softer conditions. Rain expected Friday might impact him, if the ground doesn't dry out. 

VALIANT FORCE's surprise win at 150/1 at Royal Ascot was a shock but I'm not sure he'll repeat that here . 

Consider SAJIR if you're a fan of ELITE STATUS. He finished within 2 lengths of him last time and might fare better if he settles. 

SCARED ANGEL has improved fast, but her first attempt against colts could come too soon. 

THUNDER BLUE has struggled against many of these before and I don't expect him to win. 

Conclusion:

My preference leans towards the home contender, RAMATUELLE, who might improve further, aided by her sire JUSTIFY's success. SAJIR, another French horse, holds place potential. A reverse forecast between them might be interesting.

VIVE LA FRANCE 🇫🇷 🇫🇷!

RAMATUELLE to win at 3/1.

RAMATUELLE/SAJIR Rev Forcast. 


The NAP, NB & Longshot

NAP (Best Bet) 🏅

Newbury 1.50pm: Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) 

I have this between 2 horses, as KEMARI faces a step up in class and hasn't proven himself at this level yet.

ARREST struggled at Epsom & Ascot due to firmer conditions. He's more comfortable on soft ground, showcased by his strong performance in the Chester Vase, beating ADELAIDE RIVER, a horse that has since placed in G1 races.  

Despite looking like he needs a bog ARREST has won on Good to Soft ground & the fact that this represents a drop in class are favourable aspects. Rain is expected on Friday, but the question remains if there will be enough to truly suit him?

KLONDIKE is unexposed with just 3 runs, yet he managed a commendable 4th, coming from the rear of the field, in the Bahrain Trophy Stakes against highly regarded horses. 

Having previously won on soft ground at the track, he might also benefit from the upcoming rain. The Haggas yard are in good form and KLONDIKE receives weight from the other horses in here.

While both ARREST and KLONDIKE have their merits, I'm slightly leaning towards ARREST due to this class drop and the potential impact of any rain. 


ARREST to win at 2/1.

NB (Next Best) 🤞

Newbury 3.35pm: Hungerfood Stakes (Group 2)

With the withdrawal of ante post favorite SCARED, CHINDIT has taken the lead in the market. Holding strong G1 and G2 form, CHINDIT is a proven performer. However, dropping to the 7f distance might not be his ideal setting, especially considering the forecasted rain on Friday and his previous withdrawal on soft ground at Goodwood last time out. 

The incoming rain introduces an element of uncertainty for CHINDIT, and this wet condition may not favour some of the other contenders either. 

Taking these factors into account, I'm eyeing an opportunity with a horse at longer odds. 

MAMMAS GIRL showcased her potential with a victorious 7f debut on good to soft ground at Newmarket, displaying an impressive turn of foot.  

Although her subsequent attempts at 1m and a shorter 6f run weren't as successful, reverting to her favoured 7f distance could be the key. Importantly, she boasts a flawless 2 for 2 record at this distance. 

Furthermore, MAMMAS GIRL benefits from an 8lb weight allowance against older colts and 3lb against the 3YO colts. 

With AMO's horses currently in good form and the capable Rossa Ryan in the saddle, with a strong 31% strike rate at the time of writing, MAMMAS GIRL presents a genuine chance. 

Considering her odds of 14/1, an each-way play on her could prove shrewd.

MAMMAS GIRL each way at 14/1. (3 Places). 

Longshot 🏌 

No Longshot this weekend.


The Bets 📑

Saturday: 

Newbury 1.50pm: ARREST to win 2/1. (NAP)

Newbury 3.35pm: MAMMAS GIRL each way at 14/1. (NB)

Sunday: 

Deauville 3.35pm: RAMATUELLE to win at 3/1.  (Main Race Preview)

Deauville 3.35pm: RAMATUELLE/SAJIR Rev Forcast. (Main Race Preview) 

Please let me know how you think I can improve the blog. I will endeavour to listen to all suggestions and ideas.  

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