The York Ebor Festival - Fancies for the week
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There is some great racing ahead this week with racing at York taking centre stage🏇 Let's hope for a successful week 🤞
Wednesday 23rd August
York 2.25pm: Acomb Stakes (Group 3)
BALLYMOUNT BOY appears to be a solid favourite in this. His close 1L finish behind VANDEEK at Goodwood, who went out to win the G1 Prix Morny next time out, hints at his potential.
That was on soft ground but given his pedigree I think he may have preference for good ground and no rain expected until Friday, conditions seem favourable.
The step up to 7f could also work in his favour given his breeding & to me all signs point to a strong showing from BALLYMOUNT BOY.
BALLYMOUNT BOY to win at 9/4.
York 3.00pm: Great Voltiguer Stakes (Group 2)
This race is quite a puzzle with a small field, which often makes picking a bet a bit tricky.
GREGORY is currently leading in the betting, but this shorter distance might not be his ideal. Plus, he's carrying a 3Ib penalty.
CONTINOUS looks like a solid choice based on form. However, I'm leaning towards CASTLE WAY. He seemed to really enjoy the longer distance LTO, where he managed to beat TOWER OF LONDON – a horse highly rated by the Ballydoyle team.
With the ground expected to be on the firmer side of good on Wednesday, another appealing upside is that all of CASTLE WAY's wins have come on good or good to firm ground.
He shares the same Dam as the impressive G1 winning miler PALACE PIER , but he also has a good amount of stamina in his pedigree.
Given that conditions may be in his favour, I'm taking a bit of a risk on CASTLE WAY aiming for his fourth win in a row.
CASTLE WAY to win at 10/3.
This race is quite a puzzle with a small field, which often makes picking a bet a bit tricky.
GREGORY is currently leading in the betting, but this shorter distance might not be his ideal. Plus, he's carrying a 3Ib penalty.
CONTINOUS looks like a solid choice based on form. However, I'm leaning towards CASTLE WAY. He seemed to really enjoy the longer distance LTO, where he managed to beat TOWER OF LONDON – a horse highly rated by the Ballydoyle team.
With the ground expected to be on the firmer side of good on Wednesday, another appealing upside is that all of CASTLE WAY's wins have come on good or good to firm ground.
He shares the same Dam as the impressive G1 winning miler PALACE PIER , but he also has a good amount of stamina in his pedigree.
Given that conditions may be in his favour, I'm taking a bit of a risk on CASTLE WAY aiming for his fourth win in a row.
York 3.35pm: Juddmonte International (Group 1)
The Juddmonte field is disappointingly small, just 4 runners in this intriguing event.
PADDINGTON stands out, triumphing in every challenge thrown his way this season. INSPIRAL franked the form of his Goodwood win, by picking up a G1 in France since.
His chances are further boosted by the fact Aidan O’Brien has the most wins in this race, and Ryan Moore is joint top jockey along with Frankie in this race.
MOSTAHDAF shone in the Prince of Wales & he’s the highest rated here. The Gosden’s have previous wins in this, and he prefers good ground, which is expected.
Giving 7Ibs to PADDINGTON is a challenge but he has won all his races off the back of a 58 day break or longer.
THE FOXES won the Dante over C&D but needs to step up at this level.
NASHWA's Goodwood run was solid, but she excels at a mile and probably needs abit of give in the ground.
I've taken on PADDINGTON all season, and while he keeps winning, this could be his toughest test yet.
At the prices I’ll be hoping that PADDINGTON has gone to the well one too many times & MOSTAHDAF will continue his flawless record off the back of a break.
MOSTAHDAF to win at 5/2.
The Juddmonte field is disappointingly small, just 4 runners in this intriguing event.
PADDINGTON stands out, triumphing in every challenge thrown his way this season. INSPIRAL franked the form of his Goodwood win, by picking up a G1 in France since.
His chances are further boosted by the fact Aidan O’Brien has the most wins in this race, and Ryan Moore is joint top jockey along with Frankie in this race.
MOSTAHDAF shone in the Prince of Wales & he’s the highest rated here. The Gosden’s have previous wins in this, and he prefers good ground, which is expected.
Giving 7Ibs to PADDINGTON is a challenge but he has won all his races off the back of a 58 day break or longer.
THE FOXES won the Dante over C&D but needs to step up at this level.
NASHWA's Goodwood run was solid, but she excels at a mile and probably needs abit of give in the ground.
I've taken on PADDINGTON all season, and while he keeps winning, this could be his toughest test yet.
At the prices I’ll be hoping that PADDINGTON has gone to the well one too many times & MOSTAHDAF will continue his flawless record off the back of a break.
Thursday 24th August
York 3.00pm: Clipper Heritage (Handicap)
BLUE FOR YOU is the selection. Despite running off a career high mark of 105, his track record at York is impressive, with form figures reading 22151. He consistently performs well over this C&D. The good ground should also be to his advantage. I'm hoping he can overcome his high mark to continue his strong York record.
BLUE FOR YOU each way at 10/1.
York 3.35pm: Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1)
SAVETHELASTDANCE and BLUESTOCKING might face off again after their Irish Oaks clash.
While I initially favoured SAVETHELASTDANCE, I think she performs better on soft ground.
On the other hand, I would back BLUESTOCKING to reverse the form on good ground, but there are doubts about her participation.
FREE WIND is a filly I like, but her progress this year hasn't been as I expected. She has won on good ground here before, which could make her a player. However, she has to give weight to 3-year-olds, and I believe she prefers softer ground underfoot.
AL HUSN won the Nassau on heavy ground at Goodwood, indicating her improving form & she’s on an upward curve. But, it remains to be seen if she can handle conceding weight to the younger horses as well.
Considering the odds and the uncertainty around BLUESTOCKING's participation, I'm leaning towards NOVAKAI trained by Karl Burke. She displayed promise over 1m4f with a recent victory and has previous form at York, finishing 2nd in the Musidora being Oaks winner SOUL SISTER. As a 3YO, she carries less weight and could offer value in this race.
NOVAKAI each way at 12/1.
NOVAKAI each way at 12/1.
Friday 25th August
York 2.25pm: Lonsdale Cup (Group 2)
York 2.25pm: Lonsdale Cup (Group 2)
I'd discount the Goodwood form that most of these took part in where QUICKTHORN took the lead & won from the front. It's unlikely other jockey’s will allow that again, and I think BROOME might challenge him up front.
COURAGE MON AMI needs to prove his Ascot Gold Cup win wasn't a one-off, so I'm not leaning towards him in this race.
As for COLTRANE, I was with him at Goodwood, and I see no reason to change my stance here. He consistently performs well at this level. With a prior win at the track and the stamina to endure the distance, he's solid. He also holds a 3Ib advantage over QUICKTHORN and COURAGE MON AMI, which is a bonus.
COLTRANE to win at 11/4.
COLTRANE to win at 11/4.
York 3.00pm: Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)
I was on BAHEER at Goodwood, and despite facing KYLIAN again, I'm standing by my choice.
At Goodwood, BAHEER seemed like travelled best horse into the race, even though lost a few lengths at the start. Unfortunately, the bog underfoot affected his ability to accelerate and challenge effectively. I don't expect the conditions to be anywhere near as bad as they were at Goodwood.
BAHEER is a quick and well-traveling horse, and given his previous success at this distance, the 6f at York should suit him perfectly.
BAHEER to win at 6/1.
BAHEER to win at 6/1.
York 3.35pm: Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)
HIGHFIELD PRINCESS is the favourite due to her consistent classy performances at the top level, winning this last year and triumphing at Goodwood recently.
BRADSELL has beaten HIGHFIELD PRINCESS before but faces a tougher weight situation now conceding 1Ib to her. The Watson-Doyle partnership has been strong this year, but the favourites advantage has increased by a swing in the weights.
However, I'm backing BIG EVS, a 2YO, which would be a rare winner for this race. Being supplemented for this at a cost of 40k signals confidence.
He won at Goodwood despite unfavourable ground and has a notable Royal Ascot victory on Good to Firm. With little rain expected before Friday, conditions should suit. With a huge weight advantage of 21Ibs over the top contenders because of his age, he's my choice to potentially break the 2YO drought and win this.
BIG EVS to win at 5/1.
BIG EVS to win at 5/1.
Saturday 26th August
York 3.35pm: Ebor (Handicap)
2 selections to take to war in this one on Saturday.
REAL DREAM appears to have found his ideal distance, winning comfortably over this trip at Ascot with a 4L victory. He also has experience at this track, finishing 3rd over 1m4f earlier in the season. The 1m6f distance seems to suit him best and he's relatively unexposed with just 6 starts. He shouldn’t have any issue with the ground & off a current mark of 99, there's potential for further improvement from him.
CALLING THE WIND won the Northumberland Plate and showed promise at Royal Ascot. Despite a recent stamina-stretching run on soft ground at Goodwood, I'm forgiving that due to conditions. His rating is just 4lbs higher than his Northumberland Plate win and he's performed well at this shorter trip in the past. He’s one to keep onside
REAL DREAM each way at 8/1.
CALLING THE WIND each way at 20/1.
2 selections to take to war in this one on Saturday.
REAL DREAM appears to have found his ideal distance, winning comfortably over this trip at Ascot with a 4L victory. He also has experience at this track, finishing 3rd over 1m4f earlier in the season. The 1m6f distance seems to suit him best and he's relatively unexposed with just 6 starts. He shouldn’t have any issue with the ground & off a current mark of 99, there's potential for further improvement from him.
CALLING THE WIND won the Northumberland Plate and showed promise at Royal Ascot. Despite a recent stamina-stretching run on soft ground at Goodwood, I'm forgiving that due to conditions. His rating is just 4lbs higher than his Northumberland Plate win and he's performed well at this shorter trip in the past. He’s one to keep onside
The Bets 📑
Wednesday 23rd August
York 2.25pm: BALLYMOUNT BOY to win at 9/4.
York 3.00pm: CASTLE WAY to win at 10/3.
York 3.35pm: MOSTAHDAF to win at 5/2.
Thursday 24th August
York 3.00pm: BLUE FOR YOU each way at 10/1. (6 Places)
York 3.35pm: NOVAKAI each way at 12/1. (3 Places)
Friday 25th August
York 2.25pm: COLTRANE to win at 11/4.
York 3.00pm: BAHEER to win at 6/1.
York 3.35pm: BIG EVS to win at 5/1.
Saturday 26th August
York 3.35pm:
REAL DREAM each way at 8/1. (4 Places)
CALLING THE WIND each way at 20/1. (4 Places)
York Week Win Lucky 15 🤞
Wednesday 2.25pm: BALLYMOUNT BOY at 9/4.
Thursday 3.00pm: BLUE FOR YOU at 10/1.
Friday 2.25pm: COLTRANE at 11/4.
Friday 3.00pm: BAHEER at 6/1.
If they all win a £1 Lucky 15 (£15) would return us a cool £1,937.00💰
That Rounds up my bets for this upcoming week Good Luck 🤞
PLEASE NOTE THERE WON'T BE ANY WEEKEND SELECTIONS THIS WEEK. BUT ILL BE BACK NEXT WEEK.
Please let me know how you think I can improve the blog. I will endeavour to listen to all suggestions and ideas.
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