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Saturday 29th July - King George VI Early Selection

 King George & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes - Statistical Selection

Pyledriver wins the 2022 King George at Ascot

The King George at Ascot over 1m4f 🏇.

Saturday's main race on the card at Ascot is the 3:40pm Group 1 King George VI over 1m4f. It looks like a renewal for the ages & you could make a case for every horse in here. Close your eyes and throw a dart at who you want to win! 

Given the fact it looks like a very hard race to predict, I thought I would take a different approach this week, a statistical one. 

Looking at the key stats from the last 20 renewals:

  • 80% of the winners have been 3YO's (25%) and 4YO's (55%). 
  • 75% of winners have had odds of less than 6/1, with PYLEDRIVER being the biggest odds winner at 18/1 last year. 
  • Colts have dominated with 75% of the wins, while Fillies, despite wonder mare ENABLE's 3 impressive victories, have a lower success rate.

In terms of trainers and jockeys, Sir Michael Stoute (3), Aidan O'Brien(3), and John & Thady Gosden(5) have been the most successful. Although he is 2 behind the Gosdens over the last 20 years, Sir Micheal Stoute Is the all time leading trainer with 6 wins. 

Frankie Dettori leads the jockeys with 4 wins, followed by Ryan Moore and William Buick with 2 wins each.

Considering the weather, I'd estimate that the ground at Ascot is expected to be Good to Soft, Soft in places with some rain forecast between now and race day.

These stats suggest to me that DESERT CROWN is the most likely winner. Despite a reappearance defeat to HUKUM after a year off, I'd expected to improve for that run. Though he missed Royal Ascot due to injury, Stoute wouldn't run him here if he wasn't ready. 

Giving away weight to the 3YO's is no easy task but DESERT CROWN is still a relative unknown in this field, with only 4 runs to his name, including  1 win on soft. 

Buick is jocked up for the ride, which I can only see as a positive as he has won this twice already, level with Ryan Moore & 3 behind Frankie over the last 20 years. That isn’t bad company at all.

His Derby run last year was so impressive & I will go out on a limb here and say I think he is potentially the best horse in this race if he can better that performance. 

Providing he’s shaken off the ring rust & the ground doesn’t get any worse than soft, I'm hoping this race puts him back in the middle-distance limelight as the horse to beat. 

DESERT CROWN to win at 11/2.

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