Horse Racing Tips - Saturday 8th July

 The Coral Eclipse Weekend - Race Overview & Tips

Emily Upjohn 

The Coral Eclipse: Paddington 🐻 vs Emily Upjohn 👧

Saturday's main race on the card at Sandown is the 3:40pm Group 1 Coral Eclipse over 1m 2f. It sees Ballydoyle's 2,000 Irish Guineas winner & Royal Ascot hero Paddington take on his elders, including the Gosden's Group 1 Coronation Cup wining filly Emily Upjohn. 

Disappointingly, Only 4 runners line up here. The Aidan O’Brien trained Paddington has been backed into favourite after dotting up in the G1 St Jame’s Palace at Ascot.

🏆St James's Palace Stakes (G1)
1.600 m - 600.000 GBP - for 3yo colts
🇬🇧 Ascot

Paddington (GB)
(Siyouni - Modern Eagle , by Montjeu)
J : Ryan Moore
T:A.P. O'Brien
O :Tabor,Smith,Magnier,Westerberg,Brantpic.twitter.com/vkgWw4Awe8

— 𝙒𝙤𝙧𝙡𝙙𝙍𝙖𝙘𝙞𝙣𝙜 (@WorldRacing1) June 20, 2023

He’s in receipt of 10Ibs from Dubai Honour & West Wind Blows & 7Ibs from the filly Emily Upjohn. Being the highest rated in the field on official ratings that should make him a “good thing” but is he?

He obviously has an outstanding chance to win here, but If I had to pick a hole in his form it would be that Varian trained, Charyn, rated 109 at the time has finished within 4L of him on his last 2 starts. & the 2nd at Ascot, Chaldean, would have probably preferred a softer surface. 

Emily Upjohn is the main danger to Paddington after her impressive win in the Coronation Cup over 1m4f.

What a performance! 👀

🏇 Emily Upjohn goes from last to first in a thrilling conclusion to the Group 1 Dahlbury Coronation Cup under Frankie Dettori for John & Thady Gosden 👏 pic.twitter.com/nskfteKiqS

— Champions Series (@ChampionsSeries) June 2, 2023

She beat Westover that day, who himself has some solid form placing in last year's Derby & finishing 3 1/2L 2nd to arguably the best horse in the world right now, Equinox. 

With her smart turn of foot, there's a lot to like about her, especially considering she has won over this C&D and is likely to come on for her winning debut appearance. 

However, she still has to give 7Ibs to Paddington, meaning that off her current mark of 120, she would have to run to a career-best of around the 130 mark to win this if Paddington show's up in his Ascot form. 

The Haggas yard run Dubai Honour, whose international exploits earned him a Group 1 down under 🌏. He could be the potential fly in the ointment but giving away 10Ibs to Paddington will be a tough task. 

I think it’s possible that the rank outsider of the field, West Wind Blows will try to get a lead from the front, but with only 4 runners in this it will be very tactical affair & close knit bunch once they leave the stalls. for me it's likely he will get beaten for speed as they kick for home. 

Conclusion:

This is a trappy little race and you would have to narrow it down between the two horses at the head of the market. I may not have a bet in this, but I do see Emily Upjohn as the most likely winner.

I think she has the best turn of foot in this and with some rain forecast, the potential good to soft ground over this distance should suit, if you combine that with the fact she is a course & distance winner & should come on her reappearance run, I think it's possible she will post a career best here. 

Emily Upjohn to win at 13/8.

The NAP, NB & Longshot

NAP (Best Bet) 🏅

Sandown 1.50pm: Coral Charge (Group 3) 

The NAP comes in the first televised race on itv Racing the Coral Charge over 5f.

Dropping back down in grade ANNAF is the selection and he is currently vying for favouritism with the Karl Burke trained Marshman.

With a line through ANNAF's Haydock race, two starts ago,  where he was probably on the wrong side of the draw, he has finished within 2 Lengths of multiple Group 1 winner Highfield princess on 2 of his last 3 starts. He also has the beating of most of these in here on the back of his most recent Ascot run, where he was 3rd in the Group 1 Kings Stand over 5f.

Marshman is a horse that I like & probably has a higher ceiling, but ANNAF has already finished in front of him twice this season, once at York giving him 9Ibs & at Ascot giving him 6Ibs. They meet again here with only a 2Ibs difference in the weights, so Marshman would have to take a big step forward to reverse that form. 

Tiber Flow would holds some each way appeal at 12/1 but the 7 day turnaround from his last run, means that this might just come too soon. 

ANNAF to win at 11/2.

NB (Next Best) 🤞

Haydock 2.40pm: Bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) 

I think the Gosden's horse & favourite Mimikyu could be vulnerable in this. She looked every bit the winner coming to the line on her last run but was ultimately

out battled by an 97 rated horse. Although she should improve for that run, I can’t trust her to get the job done at such a short price. 

I’m willing to take a chance on TIME LOCK in this. She was only a neck behind Mimikyu around here last year, despite giving her 6Ibs & now they meet again off of level weights. 

She will have to bounce back from her last run, where Sea Silk Road & Poptronic both finished ahead of her, with the former winning the contest. It's possible the firmer ground didn’t quite suit her and hopefully with some potential rainfall due I’d fancy her to potentially reverse both pieces of form against those above her in the market. 

TIME LOCK each way at 8/1. (3 places)

Longshot 🏌 

Sandown 2.25pm: Coral Challenge (Handicap) 

Despite not winning in over 2 years, my longshot for this week is the Jayne Chapple-Hyam trained INTELLOGENT. He was well backed into 12/1 in full field of 30 for the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot, before a disappointing in a race where most of those at the top of the market didn’t really threaten.

Running off a mark of 105, he threatened to win two handicaps over 1m last year, falling short by less than a length on both occasions. He comes here over the mile having dropped to a mark of 100 after his Royal Ascot run, which I think sees him sitting off a winnable mark and could just be worth an each way swing.

INTELLOGENT each way at 14/1. (5 places)

The Bets 📑

Sandown 1.50pm: ANNAF to win 11/2. (NAP)

Haydock 2.40pm: TIME LOCK each way at 8/1. (NB) (3 places)

Sandown 2.25pm: INTELLOGENT each way at 14/1 (Longshot) (5 places).

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