Irish Oaks Weekend - Race Overview & Tips
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| Savethelastdance wins by 22L at Chester |
The Irish Oaks Cup: Savethelastdance💃 vs Warm Heart 💖
Saturday's main race on the card at Curragh is the 3:45pm Group 1 Irish Oaks over 1m4f. The market is dominated by Aidan O'Brien horses and doesn't appeal too much as a betting proposition but I will break it down anyway.
Read on for some extra bets this week too!
The 8 stand their ground & unsurprisingly it is the Chester Oaks winner & English Oaks runner-up SAVETHELASTDANCE topping the market
.Could Savethelastdance get back to winning ways in the Irish Oaks this weekend? 🏇
— GG (@ggcouk) July 16, 2023
She is currently priced as the market leader with stablemate Warm Heart 👀
Hit ❤️ if you think Savethelastdance wins the Irish Oaks next weekend!pic.twitter.com/j9QJKDWDjk
SAVETHELASTDANCE looks like a strong contender. O'Brien has four horses running, but Ryan Moore's choosing her, so she's probably their top choice. She did well in the Oaks, but Epsom's track might not have suited her and the good ground certainly didn't. I expect her to shine on softer ground.
WARM HEART is on fire, winning her last three races, including at Royal Ascot. She should be the main danger but looks to be the stable's second string.
BLUESTOCKING had some tough luck in running at Ascot, but she might reverse the form with WARM HEART with better luck in running.
LUMIERE ROCK gave a good effort at Ascot, but WARM HEART was too strong, and I can't see her reversing that form.
AZAZAT might prefer this softer ground & has form behind a good yardstick in ROSCARBERRY, but she has potential but still has to improve to threaten.
BE HAPPY is bred for this distance, but she needs to step up her game.
COMHRA showed promise before, but she disappointed last time out and I couldn't trust her.
LIBRARY is the outsider, and while she's got potential, she hasn't shown much yet to suggest she'll be involved.
Conclusion:
She's a short price but I find it hard to look past SAVETHELASTDANCE. She will love the ground getting softer and has solid form being 2nd in the Epsom Oaks to SOUL SISTER, who ran a blinder in France against the Colts in a G1 last weekend. With Moore on board, she looks hard to knock.
SAVETHELASTDANCE to win at 10/11.
The NAP, NB & Longshot
NAP (Best Bet) 🏅
Curragh 3.10pm: Sapphire Stakes (Group 2)
The Nap this week is ART POWER. He's on fire after that 4th place finish in the G1 July Cup, just behind superstar SHAQUILLE. Now, he's back in a G2 race, and he's Somewhat of a Curragh Specialist with a track record of 111.
Though he's better over 6f, 5f should be no problem if he breaks well and takes the lead like he usually does. He'll be hard to catch and should have too much for these providing the 7 day turnaround isn't too soon for him.
ART POWER to win at 11/8.
NB (Next Best) 🤞
Newbury 2.25pm: Mettal UK Handicap
NATHANAEL GREENE is back after smart 4th in the Northumberland Plate. He was backed from 9/1 into joint favouritism & he's been kept on a mark of 88 for that run. I think the handicapper's been lenient.
With Tom Marquand back in the saddle & back on the turf, they'll be looking to strike while the iron is hot and claim victory off what looks like a winnable mark.
NATHANAEL GREENE win at 7/2.
*BONUS NB (Next Best) 🤞*
Curragh 1.30pm: Maiden
Hoping HENRY LONGFELLOW takes a chunk of the market here, considering his eye-catching pedigree, being a Dubawi out of multiple G1 winning Mare Minding. As well as representing the Aidan O'Brien Stable. But I'll be keeping an eye on MYTHOLOGY's price.
MYTHOLOGY has solid form, finishing behind good horses here over 6f, like the 3rd in the Coventry at Ascot & HIS MAJESTY who was 2nd in a G2 race over in France last weekend. Breeding hints he'll prefer the 7f trip, so the drop in class and longer distance should suit him well.
MYTHOLOGY win at 2/1.
Longshot 🏌
Newbury 3.35pm: Super Sprint Stakes
Alright, let's talk about the long shot. Historically, low draws don't do well in this race, so you can rule out 3 of the top 7 in the market.
RELIEF RALLY is the favourite & the most likely winner but in a race like this 6/4 is too short for me to take, especially as the race she had at Ascot looked like a tough battle.
BOBSLEIGH, is another who is on the right side of the draw and has good form being 6th in the Coventry at Ascot, but Eve Johnson Houghton's horses are 0/22 winners in the last 14 days.
This made me look further down in the market and land on BEENHAM. Having Oisin Murphy on board is a good sign, and he's drawn in 11. Trainer Rod Millan, had the 2nd in this race this last her, so it's possible this could have been the target for BEENHAM.
She showed promise when winning at Goodwood, beating HAATEM, who finished 2nd to the talking horse of the season CITY OF TROY last weekend. With a line through her last run, I like her form and think she'll run well here.
BEENHAM each way at 25/1. (4 places)
*BONUS JUMPS BET 🙌*
Market Rasen 2.40pm: Handicap Hurdle
Fergal O'Brien sends 4 here including the favourite DANCILLA, However, I'm interested in one of his other horses CASTEL GANDOLFO. Last year, he came in 2nd in this very race and he's back to go one step further.
On initial inspection, he's only got three wins from 20 runs over hurdles, but that doesn't tell the full story, he's also finished 2nd a remarkable 8 times!
Two starts ago he posted a career-best winning off a mark of 120, He arrives here carrying 3lbs higher, but there's a claimer on board, taking off 3lbs. so he should be weighted well to go close again.
CASTEL GANDFOLFO each way at 14/1. (4 places)
The Bets 📑
Curragh 3.45pm: SAVETHELASTDANCE win 10/11. (Main Event Preview)
Curragh 3.10pm: ART POWER to win at 11/8. (NAP)
Newbury 2.25pm: NATHANAEL GREENE win at 7/2. (NB)
Newbury 3.35pm: BEENHAM each way at 25/1. (Longshot) (4 places).
The Bonus Bets 📑
Curragh 1.30pm: MYTHOLOGY win at 2/1.
Market Rasen 2.40pm: CASTEL GANDFOLFO each way at 14/1. (4 places)
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